We now have Guinea data! However it is locked in PDF... in French...in irregular tables, so it is not yet digitized. Fear not, I can offer a preview from the most recent situation report, which was published on Sept 17 for data through Sept 16, 2014.
The very first sentence says, "The resistance continues in Forest Guinea with respect to awareness of health and administrative authorities on the Ebola virus Wamey in the Health District Nzerekore." This is not good. Not good at all. A group of health outreach workers were killed on Sept 19 in Nzerekore, two days after this report was published. Reports suggest that security in that region has been unstable for a while now. Changing human behavior is the keystone of infection control for Ebola, so resistance is a major hurdle to stopping transmission.
There appear to be two regions with active outbreaks (the red counties are 'foyers actifs', the green countries are 'foyers calmes'). A two-front war is not ideal, but I don't know too much about how Guinea is handling the outbreak so I'll leave it at that. The red southern counties border Sierra Leone and Liberia. Nzerekore, the location of resistance, is the red county in the southeast.
On Sep 16 there were 10 new cases, 6 confirmed and 4 suspected. Most (5) were in Conakry, the capital of Guinea. Up until that date there were 964 ebola cases, mostly in Gueckedou (350) and Macenta (279). The WHO reported that there were 942 cases on Sept 14 and 899 on Sept 10, so sustained transmission is definitely occurring. This is disappointing, because Guinea had appeared to be relatively stable up until the last few weeks.
There were 608 cumulative deaths, which is a case fatality ratio of 63%. This is interesting to me because the other countries are reporting much lower CFRs. We know mid-outbreak CFRs are unreliable, particularly in outbreaks with rapid growth, because the number of new cases whose outcome is not yet known outpaces fatalities/recoveries of earlier cases. But the WHO data indicates that Guinea's outbreak has been periodic, not exponential like in Liberia. So the CFR in Guinea may be more representative of what we can expect to see overall when the dust settles.
There were 61 infections in healthcare workers, with is 6.3% of the total number of infections in Guinea. This is very similar to what we see in Liberia (5.6%) .
Sixty-cases Ebola cases are currently hospitalized, and 1,348 patients total have been hospitalized over the course of the outbreak.
Guinea has tracked 10,082 contacts cumulatively, with 2,433 still completing their followup period. In the previous 24 hours, 2,372 contacts were seen, which is 97%. This is similar to Sierra Leone and Liberia's coverage.
And now for the really interesting stuff! The breakdown of ages is as follows: 51 cases ages 0-4 (5%), 74 cases 5-14 (8%), 263 cases 15-29 (28%), 297 cases 30-44 (32%) and 250 cases 45+ (27%). These age groups are irregular so it's hard to get a feel of risk by age, unfortunately. Before this I had not seen any data on demographics though, so this information is still very interesting. The report also noted that over half (54%) of cases are in women, and 46% are in men.
And some Google-translated tidbits:
I'll work on getting these tables into machine-readable format when I have time. And dear readers, if you have any more data, send it to me!
"Send me your data - PDF is fine," said no one ever
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